Integrating Technical Indicators and Ensemble Learning for Predicting the Opening Stock Price

Abstract

Accurately predicting stock prices poses a significant challenge due to the dynamic and complex nature of financial markets. This paper introduces a novel method that combines technical indicators with ensemble learning techniques to effectively forecast opening stock prices. Technical indicators offer valuable insights into market trends and patterns, while ensemble learning methods merge multiple models to enhance predictive precision. The study utilizes various technical indicators such as moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Bollinger Bands to capture diverse aspects of market behaviour. Ensemble learning techniques like Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Regressor, and ARIMA model are then employed to consolidate the forecasts from these indicators. The proposed framework is assessed using historical stock market data, and extensive experiments showcase its superior performance compared to individual indicators and traditional forecasting approaches. The findings reveal that integrating technical indicators with ensemble learning leads to a significant improvement in accuracy, with a success rate of 91.45% in predicting opening stock prices, thus providing valuable insights for investors and financial analysts.